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        <identifier>oai:drops-oai.dagstuhl.de:630</identifier>
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          <dc:title>On impossibility of sequential algorithmic forecasting</dc:title>
          <dc:creator>V'Yugin, Vladimir</dc:creator>
          <dc:subject>Universal forecasting</dc:subject>
          <dc:subject>computable calibration</dc:subject>
          <dc:subject>Dawid's prequential framework</dc:subject>
          <dc:subject>algorithmic randomness</dc:subject>
          <dc:subject>defensive forecasting</dc:subject>
          <dc:description>The problem of prediction future event given an individual &#13;
sequence of past events is considered. Predictions are given &#13;
in form of real numbers $p_n$ which are computed by some algorithm &#13;
$varphi$ using initial fragments $omega_1,dots, omega_{n-1}$ &#13;
of an individual binary sequence $omega=omega_1,omega_2,dots$ &#13;
and can be interpreted as probabilities of the event $omega_n=1$&#13;
given this fragment. &#13;
According to Dawid's {it prequential framework} &#13;
%we do not consider&#13;
%numbers $p_n$ as conditional probabilities generating by some &#13;
%overall probability distribution on the set of all possible events.&#13;
we consider partial forecasting algorithms $varphi$ which are &#13;
defined on all initial fragments of $omega$ and can &#13;
be undefined outside the given sequence of outcomes. &#13;
We show that even for this large class of forecasting algorithms&#13;
combining outcomes of coin-tossing and transducer algorithm&#13;
it is possible to efficiently generate with probability close &#13;
to one sequences &#13;
for which any partial forecasting algorithm is failed by the&#13;
method of verifying called {it calibration}.</dc:description>
          <dc:publisher>Schloss Dagstuhl – Leibniz-Zentrum für Informatik</dc:publisher>
          <dc:contributor>Vladimir V'Yugin</dc:contributor>
          <dc:date>2006</dc:date>
          <dc:relation>Is Part Of Dagstuhl Seminar Proceedings, Volume 6051, Kolmogorov Complexity and Applications (2006)</dc:relation>
          <dc:type>InProceedings</dc:type>
          <dc:type>Text</dc:type>
          <dc:type>doc-type:ResearchArticle</dc:type>
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          <dc:identifier>doi:10.4230/DagSemProc.06051.11</dc:identifier>
          <dc:identifier>urn:nbn:de:0030-drops-6305</dc:identifier>
          <dc:identifier>https://drops.dagstuhl.de/entities/document/10.4230/DagSemProc.06051.11</dc:identifier>
          <dc:language>eng</dc:language>
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