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          <dc:title>An Axiomatic Study of Scoring Rule Markets</dc:title>
          <dc:creator>Frongillo, Rafael</dc:creator>
          <dc:creator>Waggoner, Bo</dc:creator>
          <dc:subject>prediction markets</dc:subject>
          <dc:subject>information elicitation</dc:subject>
          <dc:subject>scoring rules</dc:subject>
          <dc:description>Prediction markets are well-studied in the case where predictions are probabilities or expectations of future random variables.  In 2008, Lambert, et al. proposed a generalization, which we call "scoring rule markets" (SRMs), in which traders predict the value of arbitrary statistics of the random variables, provided these statistics can be elicited by a scoring rule. Surprisingly, despite active recent work on prediction markets, there has not yet been any investigation into more general SRMs. To initiate such a study, we ask the following question: in what sense are SRMs "markets"? We classify SRMs according to several axioms that capture potentially desirable qualities of a market, such as the ability to freely exchange goods (contracts) for money. Not all SRMs satisfy our axioms: once a contract is purchased in any market for prediction the median of some variable, there will not necessarily be any way to sell that contract back, even in a very weak sense.  Our main result is a characterization showing that slight generalizations of cost-function-based markets are the only markets to satisfy all of our axioms for finite-outcome random variables.  Nonetheless, we find that several SRMs satisfy weaker versions of our axioms, including a novel share-based market mechanism for ratios of expected values.</dc:description>
          <dc:publisher>Schloss Dagstuhl – Leibniz-Zentrum für Informatik</dc:publisher>
          <dc:contributor>Rafael Frongillo and Bo Waggoner</dc:contributor>
          <dc:date>2018</dc:date>
          <dc:relation>Is Part Of LIPIcs, Volume 94, 9th Innovations in Theoretical Computer Science Conference (ITCS 2018)</dc:relation>
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          <dc:identifier>doi:10.4230/LIPIcs.ITCS.2018.15</dc:identifier>
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          <dc:identifier>https://drops.dagstuhl.de/entities/document/10.4230/LIPIcs.ITCS.2018.15</dc:identifier>
          <dc:language>eng</dc:language>
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