Estimating the Impact of a Flood Event on Property Value and Its Diminished Effect over Time (Short Paper)

Authors Nazia Ferdause Sodial, Oleksandr Galkin, Aidan Slingsby

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Nazia Ferdause Sodial
  • City, University of London, UK
Oleksandr Galkin
  • City, University of London, UK
Aidan Slingsby
  • City, University of London, UK


This research was conducted under the initiative of MIAC Analytics LTD. The flood data was acquired by MIAC Analytics LTD from its data partners, WhenFresh.

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Nazia Ferdause Sodial, Oleksandr Galkin, and Aidan Slingsby. Estimating the Impact of a Flood Event on Property Value and Its Diminished Effect over Time (Short Paper). In 12th International Conference on Geographic Information Science (GIScience 2023). Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs), Volume 277, pp. 68:1-68:6, Schloss Dagstuhl – Leibniz-Zentrum für Informatik (2023)


With the increase in natural disasters, flood events have become more frequent and severe calling for mortgage industries to take immediate steps to mitigate the financial risk posed by floods. This study looked more closely at the underlying effects of flood disasters on historical house prices as part of a climatic stress test. The discount applied on house prices due to a flood event was achieved by leveraging a causal inference approach supported by machine learning algorithms on repeat sales property and historic flood data. While the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) was employed to estimate the effect of a flood event on house prices in an area, the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) aided in overcoming the heterogeneous nature of the data by calculating the flood effect on property prices of each postcode. LightGBM as a base estimator of the causal model worked as an advantage to capture the nonlinear relationship between the features and the outcome variable and further allowed us to interpret the contribution of each feature towards the decay of these discounts using SHAP values.

Subject Classification

ACM Subject Classification
  • Computing methodologies → Machine learning approaches
  • Flood
  • Causal Inference
  • Machine Learning
  • Property Analytics


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