The Transition to an Energy Sufficient Economy

Abstract

Nigeria is an energy-rich nation with a huge energy resource base. The country is the largest reserves holder and largest producer of oil and gas in the African continent. Despite this, only about 40% of its 158 million people have access to modern energy services. Around 80% of its rural population depend on traditional biomass. This paper presents an overview of ongoing research to examine energy policies in Nigeria. The aims are: 1) to identify and quantify the barriers to sustainable energy development and 2) to provide an integrated tool to aid energy policy evaluation and planning. System dynamics modelling is shown to be a useful tool to map the interrelations between critical energy variables with other key sectors of the economy, and for understanding the energy use dynamics (impact on society and the environment). It is found that the critical factors are burgeoning population, lack of capacity utilisation, and inadequate energy investments. Others are lack of suitably trained manpower, weak institutional frameworks, and inconsistencies in energy policies. These remain the key barriers hampering Nigeria's smooth transition from energy poverty to an energy sufficient economy.