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Documents authored by Bulbul, Rizwan

Document
Short Paper
DOI: 10.4230/LIPIcs.GIScience.2023.62
An Evaluation of the Impact of Ignition Location Uncertainty on Forest Fire Ignition Prediction Using Bayesian Logistic Regression (Short Paper)

Authors: David Röbl, Rizwan Bulbul, Johannes Scholz, Mortimer M. Müller, and Harald Vacik

Published in: LIPIcs, Volume 277, 12th International Conference on Geographic Information Science (GIScience 2023)

Abstract
This study investigates the impact of location uncertainty on the predictive performance of Bayesian Logistic Regression (BLR) for forest fire ignition prediction in Austria. Historical forest fire ignitions are used to create a dataset for training models with the capability to assess the general forest fire ignition susceptibility. Each recorded fire ignition contains a timestamp, the estimated location of the ignition and a radius defining the area within which the unknown true location of the ignition point is located. As the values of the predictive features are calculated based on the assumed location, and not the unknown true location, the training data is biased due to input uncertainties. This study is set to assess the impact of input data uncertainty on the predictive performance of the model. For this we use a data binning approach that splits the input data into groups based on their location uncertainty and use them later for training multiple BLR models. The predictive performance of the models is then compared based on their accuracy, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) scores and brier scores. The study revealed that higher location uncertainty leads to decreased accuracy and AUC score, accompanied by an increase in the brier score, while demonstrating that the BLR model trained on a smaller high-quality dataset outperforms the model trained on the full dataset, despite its smaller size. The study’s contribution is to provide insights into the practical implications of location uncertainty on the quality of forest fire susceptibility predictions, with potential implications for forest risk management and forest fire documentation.
Cite as

David Röbl, Rizwan Bulbul, Johannes Scholz, Mortimer M. Müller, and Harald Vacik. An Evaluation of the Impact of Ignition Location Uncertainty on Forest Fire Ignition Prediction Using Bayesian Logistic Regression (Short Paper). In 12th International Conference on Geographic Information Science (GIScience 2023). Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs), Volume 277, pp. 62:1-62:7, Schloss Dagstuhl – Leibniz-Zentrum für Informatik (2023)

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@InProceedings{robl_et_al:LIPIcs.GIScience.2023.62,
  author =	{R\"{o}bl, David and Bulbul, Rizwan and Scholz, Johannes and M\"{u}ller, Mortimer M. and Vacik, Harald},
  title =	{{An Evaluation of the Impact of Ignition Location Uncertainty on Forest Fire Ignition Prediction Using Bayesian Logistic Regression}},
  booktitle =	{12th International Conference on Geographic Information Science (GIScience 2023)},
  pages =	{62:1--62:7},
  series =	{Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs)},
  ISBN =	{978-3-95977-288-4},
  ISSN =	{1868-8969},
  year =	{2023},
  volume =	{277},
  editor =	{Beecham, Roger and Long, Jed A. and Smith, Dianna and Zhao, Qunshan and Wise, Sarah},
  publisher =	{Schloss Dagstuhl -- Leibniz-Zentrum f{\"u}r Informatik},
  address =	{Dagstuhl, Germany},
  URL =		{https://drops.dagstuhl.de/entities/document/10.4230/LIPIcs.GIScience.2023.62},
  URN =		{urn:nbn:de:0030-drops-189576},
  doi =		{10.4230/LIPIcs.GIScience.2023.62},
  annote =	{Keywords: Forest Fire Prediction, Ignition Location Uncertainty, Bayesian Logistic Regression, Bayesian Inference, Probabilistic Programming}
}
Document
Short Paper
DOI: 10.4230/LIPIcs.GIScience.2023.82
Harnessing the Sunlight on Facades - an Approach for Determining Vertical Photovoltaic Potential (Short Paper)

Authors: Franz Welscher, Ivan Majic, Franziska Hübl, Rizwan Bulbul, and Johannes Scholz

Published in: LIPIcs, Volume 277, 12th International Conference on Geographic Information Science (GIScience 2023)

Abstract
The paper deals with the calculation of the photovoltaic potential of vertical structures. Photovoltaic systems are a core technology for producing renewable energy. As roughly 50% of the population on planet Earth lives in urban environments, the production of renewable energy in urban contexts is of particular interest. As several papers have elaborated on the photovoltaic potential of roofs, this paper focuses on vertical structures. Hence, we present a methodology to extract facades suitable for photovoltaic installation, calculate their southness and percentage of shaded areas. The approach is successfully tested, based on a dataset located in the city of Graz, Styria (Austria). The results show the wall structures of each building, the respective shadow depth, and their score based on a multi-criteria analysis that represents the suitability for the installation of a photovoltaic system.
Cite as

Franz Welscher, Ivan Majic, Franziska Hübl, Rizwan Bulbul, and Johannes Scholz. Harnessing the Sunlight on Facades - an Approach for Determining Vertical Photovoltaic Potential (Short Paper). In 12th International Conference on Geographic Information Science (GIScience 2023). Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs), Volume 277, pp. 82:1-82:7, Schloss Dagstuhl – Leibniz-Zentrum für Informatik (2023)

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@InProceedings{welscher_et_al:LIPIcs.GIScience.2023.82,
  author =	{Welscher, Franz and Majic, Ivan and H\"{u}bl, Franziska and Bulbul, Rizwan and Scholz, Johannes},
  title =	{{Harnessing the Sunlight on Facades - an Approach for Determining Vertical Photovoltaic Potential}},
  booktitle =	{12th International Conference on Geographic Information Science (GIScience 2023)},
  pages =	{82:1--82:7},
  series =	{Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs)},
  ISBN =	{978-3-95977-288-4},
  ISSN =	{1868-8969},
  year =	{2023},
  volume =	{277},
  editor =	{Beecham, Roger and Long, Jed A. and Smith, Dianna and Zhao, Qunshan and Wise, Sarah},
  publisher =	{Schloss Dagstuhl -- Leibniz-Zentrum f{\"u}r Informatik},
  address =	{Dagstuhl, Germany},
  URL =		{https://drops.dagstuhl.de/entities/document/10.4230/LIPIcs.GIScience.2023.82},
  URN =		{urn:nbn:de:0030-drops-189777},
  doi =		{10.4230/LIPIcs.GIScience.2023.82},
  annote =	{Keywords: Vertical Photovoltaics, Facades, Southness, Multi-Criteria-Analysis, Shadow}
}
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