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Three Roads to de Finetti’s Theorem in Lean 4 (Short Paper)

Authors: Cameron Freer

Published in: LIPIcs, Volume 382, 17th International Conference on Interactive Theorem Proving (ITP 2026)


Abstract
We present a Lean 4 formalization of the de Finetti–Ryll-Nardzewski theorem for infinite sequences of random variables on standard Borel spaces, establishing that every exchangeable sequence is conditionally i.i.d. The development closely follows Kallenberg’s modern treatment of probabilistic symmetries and formalizes three distinct proofs of the key implication, with the second and third formalized for real-valued square-integrable sequences: (i) a reverse‑martingale argument due to Aldous, (ii) an elementary L² approach based on contractability bounds and Cesàro convergence, and (iii) an ergodic‑theoretic proof via the Koopman operator and the mean ergodic theorem. The library contains over 42,000 lines of code and was completed in three months with extensive use of Claude and GPT models, together with a reusable Lean proof-engineering skill for agentic coding systems developed during the project. The three proofs share a uniform common ending, so each route had to produce the same finite conditional-factorization interface before the final conclusion. This provided a cross-check on these independent routes during AI-assisted development.

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Cameron Freer. Three Roads to de Finetti’s Theorem in Lean 4 (Short Paper). In 17th International Conference on Interactive Theorem Proving (ITP 2026). Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs), Volume 382, pp. 34:1-34:9, Schloss Dagstuhl – Leibniz-Zentrum für Informatik (2026)


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@InProceedings{freer:LIPIcs.ITP.2026.34,
  author =	{Freer, Cameron},
  title =	{{Three Roads to de Finetti’s Theorem in Lean 4}},
  booktitle =	{17th International Conference on Interactive Theorem Proving (ITP 2026)},
  pages =	{34:1--34:9},
  series =	{Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs)},
  ISBN =	{978-3-95977-436-9},
  ISSN =	{1868-8969},
  year =	{2026},
  volume =	{382},
  editor =	{Komendantskaya, Ekaterina and Nipkow, Tobias},
  publisher =	{Schloss Dagstuhl -- Leibniz-Zentrum f{\"u}r Informatik},
  address =	{Dagstuhl, Germany},
  URL =		{https://drops.dagstuhl.de/entities/document/10.4230/LIPIcs.ITP.2026.34},
  URN =		{urn:nbn:de:0030-drops-270086},
  doi =		{10.4230/LIPIcs.ITP.2026.34},
  annote =	{Keywords: exchangeability, de Finetti’s theorem, Lean 4, formalized mathematics, AI-assisted formalization}
}

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