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Model-Agnostic Uncertainty-Aware Semantic Segmentation with Conformal Risk Guarantees for Scene Understanding

Authors: Bakary Badjie, José Cecílio, Nils-Jonathan Friedrich, Norman Seyffer, Georg Jäger, and António Casimiro

Published in: OASIcs, Volume 143, 30th Ada-Europe International Conference on Reliable Software Technologies (AEiC 2026)


Abstract
Accurate and reliable scene segmentation is a fundamental requirement for autonomous navigation systems operating in open and dynamic environments. As these systems increasingly rely on data-driven perception modules, their safety and operational robustness hinge on well-calibrated uncertainty estimates that can support explicit control of prediction errors through conformal calibration. Most existing uncertainty-aware segmentation approaches remain architecture-specific and are not evaluated under a common uncertainty-and-calibration protocol across distinct segmentation architectures and datasets. This work introduces a model-agnostic conformal segmentation pipeline that enables operationally meaningful, calibration-based error control in real-world deployments. The proposed framework treats segmentation networks as black boxes and operates on per-pixel class probabilities that are fine-tuned through evidential deep learning (EDL) to decompose aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. We then apply pixel-wise, class-conditional split-conformal calibration to derive acceptance thresholds for user-defined target error rates. We instantiate the pipeline with DINOv2, Mask2Former, and SegFormer and evaluate it on a newly collected Lisbon street scene (LiSS) dataset; additional cross-dataset results on COCO, using a restricted set of safety-relevant classes, are reported in the appendix. Results show architecture- and class-dependent in-domain uncertainty-error alignment and indicate that dataset shift weakens uncertainty-based filtering and conformal risk control. This motivates continuous monitoring and recalibration as a practical requirement for trustworthy segmentation in safety-critical navigation.

Cite as

Bakary Badjie, José Cecílio, Nils-Jonathan Friedrich, Norman Seyffer, Georg Jäger, and António Casimiro. Model-Agnostic Uncertainty-Aware Semantic Segmentation with Conformal Risk Guarantees for Scene Understanding. In 30th Ada-Europe International Conference on Reliable Software Technologies (AEiC 2026). Open Access Series in Informatics (OASIcs), Volume 143, pp. 1:1-1:20, Schloss Dagstuhl – Leibniz-Zentrum für Informatik (2026)


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@InProceedings{badjie_et_al:OASIcs.AEiC.2026.1,
  author =	{Badjie, Bakary and Cec{\'\i}lio, Jos\'{e} and Friedrich, Nils-Jonathan and Seyffer, Norman and J\"{a}ger, Georg and Casimiro, Ant\'{o}nio},
  title =	{{Model-Agnostic Uncertainty-Aware Semantic Segmentation with Conformal Risk Guarantees for Scene Understanding}},
  booktitle =	{30th Ada-Europe International Conference on Reliable Software Technologies (AEiC 2026)},
  pages =	{1:1--1:20},
  series =	{Open Access Series in Informatics (OASIcs)},
  ISBN =	{978-3-95977-425-3},
  ISSN =	{2190-6807},
  year =	{2026},
  volume =	{143},
  editor =	{Filieri, Antonio and Backeman, Peter},
  publisher =	{Schloss Dagstuhl -- Leibniz-Zentrum f{\"u}r Informatik},
  address =	{Dagstuhl, Germany},
  URL =		{https://drops.dagstuhl.de/entities/document/10.4230/OASIcs.AEiC.2026.1},
  URN =		{urn:nbn:de:0030-drops-259199},
  doi =		{10.4230/OASIcs.AEiC.2026.1},
  annote =	{Keywords: semantic segmentation, uncertainty quantification, evidential deep learning, conformal prediction, risk control, selective prediction}
}
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