From Evaluating to Forecasting Performance: How to Turn Information Retrieval, Natural Language Processing and Recommender Systems into Predictive Sciences (Dagstuhl Perspectives Workshop 17442)

Ferro, Nicola; Fuhr, Norbert; Grefenstette, Gregory; Konstan, Joseph A.; Castells, Pablo; Daly, Elizabeth M.; Declerck, Thierry; Ekstrand, Michael D.; Geyer, Werner; Gonzalo, Julio; Kuflik, Tsvi; Lindén, Krister; Magnini, Bernardo; Nie, Jian-Yun; Perego, Raffaele; Shapira, Bracha; Soboroff, Ian; Tintarev, Nava; Verspoor, Karin; Willemsen, Martijn C.; Zobel, Justin

doi:10.4230/DagMan.7.1.96

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From Evaluating to Forecasting Performance: How to Turn Information Retrieval, Natural Language Processing and Recommender Systems into Predictive Sciences (Dagstuhl Perspectives Workshop 17442)

Authors Nicola Ferro, Norbert Fuhr, Gregory Grefenstette, Joseph A. Konstan, Pablo Castells, Elizabeth M. Daly, Thierry Declerck, Michael D. Ekstrand, Werner Geyer, Julio Gonzalo, Tsvi Kuflik, Krister Lindén, Bernardo Magnini, Jian-Yun Nie, Raffaele Perego, Bracha Shapira, Ian Soboroff, Nava Tintarev, Karin Verspoor, Martijn C. Willemsen, Justin Zobel

Part of: Issue: Dagstuhl Manifestos, Volume 7, Issue 1
Part of: Volume: Dagstuhl Manifestos, Volume 7
Part of: Journal: Dagstuhl Manifestos (DagMan)
License: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license
Publication Date: 2018-11-21

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Document Identifiers

DOI: 10.4230/DagMan.7.1.96
URN: urn:nbn:de:0030-drops-98987

Author Details

Nicola Ferro

Norbert Fuhr

Gregory Grefenstette

Joseph A. Konstan

Pablo Castells

Elizabeth M. Daly

Thierry Declerck

Michael D. Ekstrand

Werner Geyer

Julio Gonzalo

Tsvi Kuflik

Krister Lindén

Bernardo Magnini

Jian-Yun Nie

Raffaele Perego

Bracha Shapira

Ian Soboroff

Nava Tintarev

Karin Verspoor

Martijn C. Willemsen

Justin Zobel

Cite AsGet BibTex

Nicola Ferro, Norbert Fuhr, Gregory Grefenstette, Joseph A. Konstan, Pablo Castells, Elizabeth M. Daly, Thierry Declerck, Michael D. Ekstrand, Werner Geyer, Julio Gonzalo, Tsvi Kuflik, Krister Lindén, Bernardo Magnini, Jian-Yun Nie, Raffaele Perego, Bracha Shapira, Ian Soboroff, Nava Tintarev, Karin Verspoor, Martijn C. Willemsen, and Justin Zobel. From Evaluating to Forecasting Performance: How to Turn Information Retrieval, Natural Language Processing and Recommender Systems into Predictive Sciences (Dagstuhl Perspectives Workshop 17442). In Dagstuhl Manifestos, Volume 7, Issue 1, pp. 96-139, Schloss Dagstuhl – Leibniz-Zentrum für Informatik (2018)
https://doi.org/10.4230/DagMan.7.1.96

@Article{ferro_et_al:DagMan.7.1.96,
  author =	{Ferro, Nicola and Fuhr, Norbert and Grefenstette, Gregory and Konstan, Joseph A. and Castells, Pablo and Daly, Elizabeth M. and Declerck, Thierry and Ekstrand, Michael D. and Geyer, Werner and Gonzalo, Julio and Kuflik, Tsvi and Lind\'{e}n, Krister and Magnini, Bernardo and Nie, Jian-Yun and Perego, Raffaele and Shapira, Bracha and Soboroff, Ian and Tintarev, Nava and Verspoor, Karin and Willemsen, Martijn C. and Zobel, Justin},
  title =	{{From Evaluating to Forecasting Performance: How to Turn Information Retrieval, Natural Language Processing and Recommender Systems into Predictive Sciences (Dagstuhl Perspectives Workshop 17442)}},
  pages =	{96--139},
  journal =	{Dagstuhl Manifestos},
  ISSN =	{2193-2433},
  year =	{2018},
  volume =	{7},
  number =	{1},
  editor =	{Ferro, Nicola and Fuhr, Norbert and Grefenstette, Gregory and Konstan, Joseph A. and Castells, Pablo and Daly, Elizabeth M. and Declerck, Thierry and Ekstrand, Michael D. and Geyer, Werner and Gonzalo, Julio and Kuflik, Tsvi and Lind\'{e}n, Krister and Magnini, Bernardo and Nie, Jian-Yun and Perego, Raffaele and Shapira, Bracha and Soboroff, Ian and Tintarev, Nava and Verspoor, Karin and Willemsen, Martijn C. and Zobel, Justin},
  publisher =	{Schloss Dagstuhl -- Leibniz-Zentrum f{\"u}r Informatik},
  address =	{Dagstuhl, Germany},
  URL =		{https://drops.dagstuhl.de/entities/document/10.4230/DagMan.7.1.96},
  URN =		{urn:nbn:de:0030-drops-98987},
  doi =		{10.4230/DagMan.7.1.96},
  annote =	{Keywords: Information Systems, Formal models, Evaluation, Simulation, User Interaction}
}

@Article{ferro_et_al:DagMan.7.1.96,
  author =	{Ferro, Nicola and Fuhr, Norbert and Grefenstette, Gregory and Konstan, Joseph A. and Castells, Pablo and Daly, Elizabeth M. and Declerck, Thierry and Ekstrand, Michael D. and Geyer, Werner and Gonzalo, Julio and Kuflik, Tsvi and Lind\'{e}n, Krister and Magnini, Bernardo and Nie, Jian-Yun and Perego, Raffaele and Shapira, Bracha and Soboroff, Ian and Tintarev, Nava and Verspoor, Karin and Willemsen, Martijn C. and Zobel, Justin},
  title =	{{From Evaluating to Forecasting Performance: How to Turn Information Retrieval, Natural Language Processing and Recommender Systems into Predictive Sciences (Dagstuhl Perspectives Workshop 17442)}},
  pages =	{96--139},
  journal =	{Dagstuhl Manifestos},
  ISSN =	{2193-2433},
  year =	{2018},
  volume =	{7},
  number =	{1},
  editor =	{Ferro, Nicola and Fuhr, Norbert and Grefenstette, Gregory and Konstan, Joseph A. and Castells, Pablo and Daly, Elizabeth M. and Declerck, Thierry and Ekstrand, Michael D. and Geyer, Werner and Gonzalo, Julio and Kuflik, Tsvi and Lind\'{e}n, Krister and Magnini, Bernardo and Nie, Jian-Yun and Perego, Raffaele and Shapira, Bracha and Soboroff, Ian and Tintarev, Nava and Verspoor, Karin and Willemsen, Martijn C. and Zobel, Justin},
  publisher =	{Schloss Dagstuhl -- Leibniz-Zentrum f{\"u}r Informatik},
  address =	{Dagstuhl, Germany},
  URL =		{https://drops.dagstuhl.de/entities/document/10.4230/DagMan.7.1.96},
  URN =		{urn:nbn:de:0030-drops-98987},
  doi =		{10.4230/DagMan.7.1.96},
  annote =	{Keywords: Information Systems, Formal models, Evaluation, Simulation, User Interaction}
}

Abstract

We describe the state-of-the-art in performance modeling and prediction for Information Retrieval (IR), Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Recommender Systems (RecSys) along with its shortcomings and strengths. We present a framework for further research, identifying five major problem areas: understanding measures, performance analysis, making underlying assumptions explicit, identifying application features determining performance, and the development of prediction models describing the relationship between assumptions, features and resulting performance.

Keywords

Information Systems
Formal models
Evaluation
Simulation
User Interaction

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