4 Search Results for "Zhou, Ruoyu"

Document
DOI: 10.4230/LIPIcs.AFT.2025.27
Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets

Authors: Oriol Saguillo, Vahid Ghafouri, Lucianna Kiffer, and Guillermo Suarez-Tangil

Published in: LIPIcs, Volume 354, 7th Conference on Advances in Financial Technologies (AFT 2025)

Abstract
Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users can speculate on future events by trading shares tied to specific outcomes, known as conditions. Each market on Polymarket is associated with a set of one or more such conditions. To ensure proper market resolution, the condition set must be exhaustive - collectively accounting for all possible outcomes - and mutually exclusive - only one condition may resolve as true. Thus, the collective prices (probabilities) of all related outcomes (whether in a condition or market) should be $1, representing a combined probability of 1 of any outcome. Despite this design, Polymarket exhibits cases where dependent assets are mispriced, allowing for purchasing (or selling) a certain outcome for less than (or more than) $1, guaranteeing profit. This phenomenon, known as arbitrage, could enable sophisticated participants to exploit such inconsistencies. In this paper, we conduct an empirical arbitrage analysis on Polymarket data to answer three key questions: (Q1) What conditions give rise to arbitrage? (Q2) Does arbitrage actually occur on Polymarket?, and (Q3) Has anyone exploited these opportunities? A major challenge in analyzing arbitrage between related markets lies in the scalability of comparisons across a large number of markets and conditions, with a naive analysis requiring O(2^{n+m}) comparisons. To overcome this, we employ a heuristic-driven reduction strategy based on timeliness, topical similarity, and combinatorial relationships, further validated by expert input. Our study reveals two distinct forms of arbitrage on Polymarket: Market Rebalancing Arbitrage, which occurs within a single market or condition (intra-market), and Combinatorial Arbitrage, which spans across multiple markets (inter-market). We use on-chain historical order book data to analyze when these types of arbitrage opportunities have existed, and when they have been executed by users. We find a realized estimate of 40 million USD of profit extracted across both types of arbitrage during our measurement period.
Cite as

Oriol Saguillo, Vahid Ghafouri, Lucianna Kiffer, and Guillermo Suarez-Tangil. Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets. In 7th Conference on Advances in Financial Technologies (AFT 2025). Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs), Volume 354, pp. 27:1-27:24, Schloss Dagstuhl – Leibniz-Zentrum für Informatik (2025)

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@InProceedings{saguillo_et_al:LIPIcs.AFT.2025.27,
  author =	{Saguillo, Oriol and Ghafouri, Vahid and Kiffer, Lucianna and Suarez-Tangil, Guillermo},
  title =	{{Unravelling the Probabilistic Forest: Arbitrage in Prediction Markets}},
  booktitle =	{7th Conference on Advances in Financial Technologies (AFT 2025)},
  pages =	{27:1--27:24},
  series =	{Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs)},
  ISBN =	{978-3-95977-400-0},
  ISSN =	{1868-8969},
  year =	{2025},
  volume =	{354},
  editor =	{Avarikioti, Zeta and Christin, Nicolas},
  publisher =	{Schloss Dagstuhl -- Leibniz-Zentrum f{\"u}r Informatik},
  address =	{Dagstuhl, Germany},
  URL =		{https://drops.dagstuhl.de/entities/document/10.4230/LIPIcs.AFT.2025.27},
  URN =		{urn:nbn:de:0030-drops-247468},
  doi =		{10.4230/LIPIcs.AFT.2025.27},
  annote =	{Keywords: Prediction Markets, Maximal Extractable Value, Large Language Models}
}
Document
DOI: 10.4230/LIPIcs.GIScience.2025.12
Large Multi-Modal Model Cartographic Map Comprehension for Textual Locality Georeferencing

Authors: Kalana Wijegunarathna, Kristin Stock, and Christopher B. Jones

Published in: LIPIcs, Volume 346, 13th International Conference on Geographic Information Science (GIScience 2025)

Abstract
Millions of biological sample records collected in the last few centuries archived in natural history collections are un-georeferenced. Georeferencing complex locality descriptions associated with these collection samples is a highly labour-intensive task collection agencies struggle with. None of the existing automated methods exploit maps that are an essential tool for georeferencing complex relations. We present preliminary experiments and results of a novel method that exploits multi-modal capabilities of recent Large Multi-Modal Models (LMM). This method enables the model to visually contextualize spatial relations it reads in the locality description. We use a grid-based approach to adapt these auto-regressive models for this task in a zero-shot setting. Our experiments conducted on a small manually annotated dataset show impressive results for our approach (∼1 km Average distance error) compared to uni-modal georeferencing with Large Language Models and existing georeferencing tools. The paper also discusses the findings of the experiments in light of an LMM’s ability to comprehend fine-grained maps. Motivated by these results, a practical framework is proposed to integrate this method into a georeferencing workflow.
Cite as

Kalana Wijegunarathna, Kristin Stock, and Christopher B. Jones. Large Multi-Modal Model Cartographic Map Comprehension for Textual Locality Georeferencing. In 13th International Conference on Geographic Information Science (GIScience 2025). Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs), Volume 346, pp. 12:1-12:19, Schloss Dagstuhl – Leibniz-Zentrum für Informatik (2025)

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@InProceedings{wijegunarathna_et_al:LIPIcs.GIScience.2025.12,
  author =	{Wijegunarathna, Kalana and Stock, Kristin and Jones, Christopher B.},
  title =	{{Large Multi-Modal Model Cartographic Map Comprehension for Textual Locality Georeferencing}},
  booktitle =	{13th International Conference on Geographic Information Science (GIScience 2025)},
  pages =	{12:1--12:19},
  series =	{Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs)},
  ISBN =	{978-3-95977-378-2},
  ISSN =	{1868-8969},
  year =	{2025},
  volume =	{346},
  editor =	{Sila-Nowicka, Katarzyna and Moore, Antoni and O'Sullivan, David and Adams, Benjamin and Gahegan, Mark},
  publisher =	{Schloss Dagstuhl -- Leibniz-Zentrum f{\"u}r Informatik},
  address =	{Dagstuhl, Germany},
  URL =		{https://drops.dagstuhl.de/entities/document/10.4230/LIPIcs.GIScience.2025.12},
  URN =		{urn:nbn:de:0030-drops-238412},
  doi =		{10.4230/LIPIcs.GIScience.2025.12},
  annote =	{Keywords: Large Multi-Modal Models, Large Language Models, LLM, Georeferencing, Natural History collections}
}
Document
DOI: 10.4230/LIPIcs.ECOOP.2025.35
Chain of Grounded Objectives: Concise Goal-Oriented Prompting for Code Generation

Authors: Sangyeop Yeo, Seung-Won Hwang, and Yu-Seung Ma

Published in: LIPIcs, Volume 333, 39th European Conference on Object-Oriented Programming (ECOOP 2025)

Abstract
The use of Large Language Models (LLMs) for code generation has gained significant attention in recent years. Existing methods often aim to improve the quality of generated code by incorporating additional contextual information or guidance into input prompts. Many of these approaches adopt process-oriented reasoning strategies, mimicking human-like step-by-step thinking; however, they may not always align with the structured nature of programming languages. This paper introduces Chain of Grounded Objectives (CGO), a concise goal-oriented prompting approach that embeds functional objectives into prompts to enhance code generation. By focusing on precisely defined objectives rather than explicit procedural steps, CGO aligns more naturally with programming tasks while retaining flexibility. Empirical evaluations on HumanEval, MBPP, their extended versions, and LiveCodeBench show that CGO achieves accuracy comparable to or better than existing methods while using fewer tokens, making it a more efficient approach to LLM-based code generation.
Cite as

Sangyeop Yeo, Seung-Won Hwang, and Yu-Seung Ma. Chain of Grounded Objectives: Concise Goal-Oriented Prompting for Code Generation. In 39th European Conference on Object-Oriented Programming (ECOOP 2025). Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs), Volume 333, pp. 35:1-35:25, Schloss Dagstuhl – Leibniz-Zentrum für Informatik (2025)

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@InProceedings{yeo_et_al:LIPIcs.ECOOP.2025.35,
  author =	{Yeo, Sangyeop and Hwang, Seung-Won and Ma, Yu-Seung},
  title =	{{Chain of Grounded Objectives: Concise Goal-Oriented Prompting for Code Generation}},
  booktitle =	{39th European Conference on Object-Oriented Programming (ECOOP 2025)},
  pages =	{35:1--35:25},
  series =	{Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs)},
  ISBN =	{978-3-95977-373-7},
  ISSN =	{1868-8969},
  year =	{2025},
  volume =	{333},
  editor =	{Aldrich, Jonathan and Silva, Alexandra},
  publisher =	{Schloss Dagstuhl -- Leibniz-Zentrum f{\"u}r Informatik},
  address =	{Dagstuhl, Germany},
  URL =		{https://drops.dagstuhl.de/entities/document/10.4230/LIPIcs.ECOOP.2025.35},
  URN =		{urn:nbn:de:0030-drops-233271},
  doi =		{10.4230/LIPIcs.ECOOP.2025.35},
  annote =	{Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Natural Language Processing, Prompt Design, Large Language Models, Code Generation}
}
Document
DOI: 10.4230/LIPIcs.TIME.2019.20
On Verifying Timed Hyperproperties

Authors: Hsi-Ming Ho, Ruoyu Zhou, and Timothy M. Jones

Published in: LIPIcs, Volume 147, 26th International Symposium on Temporal Representation and Reasoning (TIME 2019)

Abstract
We study the satisfiability and model-checking problems for timed hyperproperties specified with HyperMTL, a timed extension of HyperLTL. Depending on whether interleaving of events in different traces is allowed, two possible semantics can be defined for timed hyperproperties: synchronous and asynchronous. While the satisfiability problem can be decided similarly as for HyperLTL regardless of the choice of semantics, we show that the model-checking problem for HyperMTL, unless the specification is alternation-free, is undecidable even when very restricted timing constraints are allowed. On the positive side, we show that model checking HyperMTL with quantifier alternations is possible under certain conditions in the synchronous semantics, or when there is a fixed bound on the length of the time domain.
Cite as

Hsi-Ming Ho, Ruoyu Zhou, and Timothy M. Jones. On Verifying Timed Hyperproperties. In 26th International Symposium on Temporal Representation and Reasoning (TIME 2019). Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs), Volume 147, pp. 20:1-20:18, Schloss Dagstuhl – Leibniz-Zentrum für Informatik (2019)

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@InProceedings{ho_et_al:LIPIcs.TIME.2019.20,
  author =	{Ho, Hsi-Ming and Zhou, Ruoyu and Jones, Timothy M.},
  title =	{{On Verifying Timed Hyperproperties}},
  booktitle =	{26th International Symposium on Temporal Representation and Reasoning (TIME 2019)},
  pages =	{20:1--20:18},
  series =	{Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs)},
  ISBN =	{978-3-95977-127-6},
  ISSN =	{1868-8969},
  year =	{2019},
  volume =	{147},
  editor =	{Gamper, Johann and Pinchinat, Sophie and Sciavicco, Guido},
  publisher =	{Schloss Dagstuhl -- Leibniz-Zentrum f{\"u}r Informatik},
  address =	{Dagstuhl, Germany},
  URL =		{https://drops.dagstuhl.de/entities/document/10.4230/LIPIcs.TIME.2019.20},
  URN =		{urn:nbn:de:0030-drops-113782},
  doi =		{10.4230/LIPIcs.TIME.2019.20},
  annote =	{Keywords: Timed Automata, Temporal Logics, Cybersecurity}
}
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