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DOI: 10.4230/OASIcs.ATMOS.2012.35
URN: urn:nbn:de:0030-drops-37014
URL: http://drops.dagstuhl.de/opus/volltexte/2012/3701/
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Keyhani, Mohammad H. ; Schnee, Mathias ; Weihe, Karsten ; Zorn, Hans-Peter

Reliability and Delay Distributions of Train Connections

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Abstract

Finding reliable train connections is a considerable issue in timetable information since train delays perturb the timetable daily. We present an effective probabilistic approach for estimating the reliability of connections in a large train network. Experiments on real customer queries and real timetables for all trains in Germany show that our approach can be implemented to deliver good results at the expense of only little processing time. Based on probability distributions for train events in connections, we estimate the reliability of connections. We have analyzed our computed reliability ratings by validating our predictions against real delay data from German Railways. This study shows that we are able to predict the feasibility of connections very well. In essence, our predictions are slightly optimistic for connections with a high rating and pretty accurate for connections with a medium rating. Only for the rare cases of a very low rating, we are too pessimistic. Our probabilistic approach already delivers good results, still has improvement potential, and offers a new perspective in the search for more reliable connections in order to bring passengers safely to their destinations even in case of delays.

BibTeX - Entry

@InProceedings{keyhani_et_al:OASIcs:2012:3701,
  author =	{Mohammad H. Keyhani and Mathias Schnee and Karsten Weihe and Hans-Peter Zorn},
  title =	{{Reliability and Delay Distributions of Train Connections}},
  booktitle =	{12th Workshop on Algorithmic Approaches for Transportation Modelling, Optimization, and Systems},
  pages =	{35--46},
  series =	{OpenAccess Series in Informatics (OASIcs)},
  ISBN =	{978-3-939897-45-3},
  ISSN =	{2190-6807},
  year =	{2012},
  volume =	{25},
  editor =	{Daniel Delling and Leo Liberti},
  publisher =	{Schloss Dagstuhl--Leibniz-Zentrum fuer Informatik},
  address =	{Dagstuhl, Germany},
  URL =		{http://drops.dagstuhl.de/opus/volltexte/2012/3701},
  URN =		{urn:nbn:de:0030-drops-37014},
  doi =		{http://dx.doi.org/10.4230/OASIcs.ATMOS.2012.35},
  annote =	{Keywords: Stochastic Delay Propagation, Timetable Information, Connection Reliability}
}

Keywords: Stochastic Delay Propagation, Timetable Information, Connection Reliability
Seminar: 12th Workshop on Algorithmic Approaches for Transportation Modelling, Optimization, and Systems
Issue Date: 2012
Date of publication: 11.09.2012


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